The World Bank has adjusted its economic growth forecast for Mexico in 2025 from 0% to 0.2%, though it notes ongoing global economic challenges affecting this outlook.
This modest increase still marks a notable decline from the 1.5% growth forecast predicted earlier in January. Looking forward, the institution anticipates that Mexico’s growth will reach 1.1% in 2026.
Mexico is expected to encounter more severe economic challenges than other Latin American countries, largely due to its significant trade dependency on the United States. With 80% of Mexican exports directed to the U.S. in 2024, the 25% tariffs on goods not compliant with the USMCA trade agreement will have a considerable impact.
The World Bank has also reduced its growth forecast for Latin America overall, from 2.6% to 2.3% for 2025, citing “volatile food inflation” as a key impediment. The global growth forecast stands at 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.
The report highlights the risk that “additional trade restrictions” under a revised USMCA could further decrease Mexico’s exports, and any more pronounced slowdown in U.S. growth could greatly diminish demand for Latin American goods and services.
Additionally, China’s economic growth is predicted to decline from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% this year and 4% the following year, potentially affecting Chinese nearshoring activities in Mexico.
For more information, you can read the full article on Mexico News Daily.
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