A 20.91% tariff on most Mexican tomato imports to the United States went into effect Monday as the decades-old Tomato Suspension Agreement (TSA) comes to an end, putting at risk a crucial agricultural export sector for Mexico.
The TSA had previously allowed Mexican producers to export tomatoes to the U.S. without paying antidumping duties, as long as they maintained minimum prices. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce decided not to renew the agreement during an April meeting with the Department of Agriculture, claiming the “current agreement has failed to protect U.S. tomato growers from unfairly priced Mexican imports.”
Economic Impact
The economic impact is expected to be significant for both countries. Mexico supplies approximately 61% of the total U.S. fresh tomato market, with exports valued at over US $2 billion annually. The U.S. represents 93% of Mexico’s tomato export market.
Consumers in the United States will likely feel the effects quickly. According to Arizona State University professor Timothy Richards, tomato prices could increase by around 10%, potentially reducing demand by 5%. As of May 2025, field-grown tomatoes cost U.S. consumers approximately US $3.75 per kilogram.
This tariff could have serious employment consequences in Mexico, particularly in agricultural regions like Sinaloa, where between 200,000 and 400,000 laborers work in tomato fields.
Challenges in Replacement
Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegué has argued that U.S. producers cannot easily replace Mexican imports, stating, “They can’t replace us because there aren’t many other countries that produce this quantity of excellent tomatoes at a very reasonable price.”
American trade experts acknowledge this reality, with American Action Forum analyst Jacob Jensen noting it would require between 16,996 and 101,171 additional hectares of U.S. production to compensate for Mexican tomato supplies.
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