The number of cross-border workers commuting from Baja California to the United States has decreased by 20% between January 2024 and March 2025, according to data released by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
The workforce declined steadily from 87,190 commuters in the first quarter of 2024 to 70,642 in the first quarter of 2025, as reported in INEGI’s 2025 National Survey of Occupation and Employment.
Factors Contributing to the Decline
This significant reduction is largely attributed to heightened immigration enforcement and growing concerns among Mexican workers in the United States. Recent immigration raids in San Diego County have exacerbated these fears, prompting some San Diego County lawmakers to petition the U.S. President to avoid “sweeping raids that instill fear and disrupt the workplace.”
Impact on Tijuana’s Economy
Real estate industry representatives warn that the decline could destabilize Tijuana’s economy by reducing both residential and commercial occupancy rates. According to government data, approximately 90% of Baja California residents who work or study in the U.S. live in Tijuana and Mexicali, making this demographic crucial to the local real estate market.
Broader Implications
The impact extends beyond border communities. Remittances to Mexico fell by 4.6% in May compared to the previous year, with potential U.S. taxation on remittances cited as a contributing factor. Total remittances for the month stood at US $5.36 billion, comprising 13.9 million transactions averaging $385 each.
A recent study showed that between 2000 and 2020, the number of cross-border workers living in Tijuana grew by 30%, highlighting the historical significance of this workforce to the regional economy.
For more details, you can find the full article on Mexico News Daily.
- About the Author
- More info
Leave a Reply