Mexico Braces for New Pacific Storm as Recovery from Hurricane Erick Continues

Mexico’s National Weather Service (SMN) and National Water Commission (Conagua) are currently monitoring a developing storm system off the coast of El Salvador. This system poses a threat to southwestern Mexico by potentially bringing heavy rainfall this weekend. The region is still recovering from the aftermath of Hurricane Erick.

The low-pressure system is situated approximately 670 kilometers south-southeast of the Mexico-Guatemala border and is moving in a west-northwesterly direction. Official forecasts predict a 10% chance of the system developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday, increasing to a 70% chance by next week. This could potentially affect coastal areas from Chiapas to Jalisco.

Should the system strengthen into a tropical storm, it will be named Flossie. It could impact Oaxaca and Chiapas between June 27-29 before potentially moving northward along Mexico’s Pacific coast toward Jalisco, Michoacán, and Guerrero.

The emergence of this threat coincides with the ongoing recovery efforts in Oaxaca and Guerrero from Hurricane Erick, which made landfall last Thursday. According to the National Civil Protection Commission, Hurricane Erick caused damage to at least 26,000 homes across 17 municipalities in these states. Federal authorities are actively working to reopen roads, restore water supplies, and prevent disease outbreaks in the affected areas.

Active Tropical Cyclone Season

Mexico is currently facing what meteorologists describe as the most active tropical cyclone season in recent memory. This year, the country has already encountered three named tropical storms (Alvin, Cosme, and Dalila), one Category 1-2 hurricane (Barbara), and Hurricane Erick, a Category 3 storm that was the strongest to hit Mexico this early in the year.

Even if the new storm system does not make direct landfall, Conagua forecasts indicate it will produce significant rainfall across a large area. This rainfall potentially affects states as far inland as Puebla and as far north as Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango.

Continued Seasonal Rains

In the meantime, seasonal rains persist throughout much of Mexico. These conditions are due to interactions between low-pressure systems and troughs extending from the Yucatán Peninsula north to the Mesa Central. Particularly heavy rainfall is expected in the states of Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Tabasco.

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