Mexico’s commercial relationship with China has faced a significant challenge as the trade deficit reached nearly US $120 billion in 2024, based on information from Mexico’s national statistics agency, INEGI.
This represents a doubling of the deficit over a decade, with Mexican exports to China being a mere $9.94 billion, compared to imports from China, which soared to $129.795 billion. Additionally, exports to China have been declining for two consecutive years.
The trade dynamics highlight Mexico’s dependence on Chinese intermediate goods, crucial for its manufacturing sector. Copper imports, vital for the automotive industry, are a notable example.
This dependence is challenging amid new trade policies. From August 1, products with Chinese components exported by Mexico to the United States will face 30% tariffs, due to non-compliance with USMCA regulations.
Economic Analysis
Economic experts link the reliance on Chinese goods to the competitive pricing of Chinese components and Mexico’s low integration of domestic production chains, particularly in the television and machinery sectors.
The situation is further complicated by U.S. efforts to curb its trade with China. As of May 2025, China’s portion of U.S. trade has decreased to 5.89%, a significant drop from 17.77% in early 2017.
Proposed Solutions
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard addressed the issue, proposing a joint initiative with the U.S. and Canada to enhance North American manufacturing capabilities and reduce reliance on Chinese imports. This proposal includes:
- Implementing uniform tariffs on Chinese goods
- Fostering partnerships to develop supply chains in essential sectors
The CEESP, a Mexican economic think tank, cautions that continued reliance on Chinese imports will hinder Mexico’s technological advancement and perpetuate a pattern of basic assembly rather than innovative growth.
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